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Beijing has deployed its maritime law enforcement through the maritime area of the Diaoyu islands and military drones near outlying Japanese territory as China ramps up strains over the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its ships conducted a “rights enforcement patrol” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are administered by Japan but also claimed by Beijing.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation undertaken by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” officials declared.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have consistently clashed around the islands but the latest activity occur during an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from China, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Island's Stance

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it terms “reunification”. It has left open the military option. The island's administration and people overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if necessary.

An attack or invasion by China would threaten to spiral into a regional or global conflict, potentially involving the US and other partner nations including Japan, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Defense Operations

In Taiwan, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was likely the maritime patrol, operating around the island over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones flying between Taiwan and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go unusually near to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but uncommon, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in recent weeks.

Late on Saturday, the ministry said China had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It added the island had dispatched military assets to track the developments. Taiwan documents these operations a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Diplomatic Pressure

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from China since Takaichi made her remarks, with China’s consul general in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Japan by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities stated that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Travel and Education Advisory

Late last week, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines said on Saturday that flights to Tokyo could be cancelled without penalty.

Adding to the tensions, Beijing's administration on Sunday urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it characterized as an unstable security environment.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a limited skirmish; it would probably involve other nations, including the US, and could quickly spiral into a large-scale conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Japanese leaders have previously avoided publicly mentioning Taiwan when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also favoured by Tokyo’s main security ally, the US.

However, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards Taiwan.